California’s Winter Outlook: A Wetter Season May Be Ahead
A strong El Niño, an active storm track, and the possibility of above-average rainfall could make the 2026–27 winter an interesting one for California.
California winters have always been a little unpredictable.
One year can bring weeks of blue skies and barely a drop of rain; another can deliver atmospheric rivers, snow-covered mountains, and storms that reshape the season almost overnight.
As we head toward winter 2026–27, early forecasts suggest Californians may want to keep the umbrellas within reach.
The latest long-range outlook from The Old Farmer’s Almanac points toward a wetter-than-normal winter across portions of the West, with California’s Pacific Southwest region expected to trend both warmer and wetter overall.
California's 2026–27 Winter Outlook
Warmer than normal overall across the Pacific Southwest.
Above-normal precipitation is anticipated for the region.
California mountain regions could see near- to above-normal snowfall.
How strongly El Niño influences California's storm track as winter develops.
A Wetter Winter Could Be Taking Shape
While much of the country is expected to experience a relatively mild winter, California could find itself on the wetter side of the national weather map.
For the Pacific Southwest, the Almanac's outlook calls for temperatures to run above normal overall, alongside above-normal precipitation. California's mountain regions could also see snowfall totals ranging from near to above seasonal averages.
That doesn't necessarily mean months of uninterrupted rain.
Long-range seasonal forecasts are better understood as an indication of broader patterns rather than a prediction of exactly what will happen on a particular day or week. A wetter-than-normal season can still include long stretches of sunshine interrupted by periods of much more active weather.
Why Is Everyone Talking About El Niño?
El Niño begins thousands of miles away from California, with unusually warm ocean temperatures across the central and eastern tropical Pacific.
Those warmer waters can influence atmospheric circulation and shift the jet stream—the fast-moving current of air that helps guide storms across North America.
A strong El Niño does not automatically guarantee a rainy Southern California winter. Each El Niño develops differently, and other atmospheric and oceanic conditions play a role in determining where storms ultimately travel.
Still, El Niño can favor wetter conditions across parts of the West and South, which is one reason California's winter outlook is getting attention this year.
What About Snow in the Mountains?
For anyone already thinking about winter weekends in Mammoth, Tahoe, or the mountains closer to Los Angeles, there may be reason to watch the forecast.
The seasonal outlook anticipates near- to above-normal snowfall in California mountain areas, particularly when colder air coincides with incoming storms.
A wet California winter doesn't necessarily translate into snow everywhere—but the right combination of moisture and cold air could create some notable mountain weather.
When Could California See the Most Active Weather?
The seasonal outlook identifies several potentially active periods stretching from late December through March.
Rather than one concentrated period of winter weather, the forecast suggests California could experience multiple rounds of storm activity as the season progresses.
Of course, those windows are long-range predictions rather than guarantees. As winter approaches, shorter-range forecasts from meteorological agencies will provide a much clearer picture of individual storms and their potential impacts.
A Little Preparation Goes a Long Way
For homeowners, the most useful takeaway isn't trying to predict exactly how much rain will fall. It's remembering how quickly Southern California weather can change once the first significant storms arrive.
Remove leaves and debris before heavier rainfall arrives.
Look for damaged areas or potential leaks while the weather is still dry.
Make sure water has a clear path away from the home and foundation.
Address vulnerable branches and outdoor areas before strong winds or rain.
Hillside, canyon, coastal, and recent burn areas may require additional attention depending on local conditions.
California Winter, as Unpredictable as Ever
Long-range forecasts are exactly that: forecasts. Seasonal outlooks are best viewed as a look at broader temperature and precipitation patterns rather than a promise of what any individual winter day will bring.
But the early signals give Californians something worth watching. The current outlook points toward a winter that could be warmer overall, wetter than usual, and potentially productive for snowfall in parts of the mountains.
So enjoy the sunshine while it's here.
And maybe don't put the umbrella too far back in the closet.
Forecast information referenced from The Old Farmer's Almanac 2026–27 extended winter outlook. Seasonal forecasts are long-range projections and are subject to change.
